| |
| |
|
Politics Information |
|
|
|
Iranian Elections - Roadmap To Continued Apathy
The recent first round of the Iranian elections somewhat resembled the rise to power of the promising Mohammed Khatami first time round in 1999. But despite the break from apathy seen over recent elections, the liveliness does not bode anywhere near the same promise that Khatami managed to swirl up six years ago. There's been discouraging controversy and intrigue surrounding the running of the main reformist candidate Mostafa Moin and the last minute participation of Hashemi Rafsanjani also brought zest to the process. Rafsanjani is tipped to win however simply because most people believe he holds the most sway over the country's real ruler, the supreme Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who shows no signs of letting go of his power. Political lethargy is rife in Iran and turns into cynicism at election times. But despite people's disappointment with politics, the country is heading for tough times, both economically and politically. Outside observers say that the closest the population is likely to get to civil disobedience is by staying away from the polls. Which is likely the scenario that's going to prevail on election day, or 'fate day' as the incumbent rulers are televising the elections in a bid to reinvigorate the political landscape they have managed to successfully stifle for the last two terms of Khatami's rule. Whether there's life in the old dog yet remains to be seen still. Politics and daily life have started to diverge beyond what's been seen since the 1979 overthrow of the Shah. For ordinary Iranians, the country's economy is the biggest worry and any attempts made to kickstart job creation efforts are followed with eagle eyes by the young population which has a high umemployment rate. Iran's economy outside oil is extremely weak and despite high oil prices, which pay for half the country's spending, finances are in turmoil. Official estimates showed recently that the economy is now down 1.9% on the previous fiscal year ended March. Growth of 4.8% has been achieved in 2004/2005, compared to the previous year's 6.7%. Iran is the second most important player in the Organization of Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) and has around 10 percent of the world's proven oil reserves as well as the world's second largest natural gas reserves. The recent high oil prices have boosted its oil revenues, which make up some 90% of its total exports and just under half the country's public expenditure. The departure of Mohammad Khatami, who has ruled the country for two successive eras and can't stay on for a third term because the constitution does not allow this, is a bummer for many. Khatami himself is tired and a living advertisement for boycotting the polls, say observers. The hardline rulers, who convene in the so called Guardian Council have shown who's boss in a vigorous way during his reign and anyone fit to step in his shoes won't easily be envied as the conservatives on the council are sworn to continue their conservative ways. The very fact that the election contest is dominated by Rafsanjani highlights to many the undeniable reality that there simply is no way anyone with new ideas can tackle the Khamenei's faction. Over the last decade, Khamenei, the mullahs' supreme leader, systematically has created a situation in which all rival politicians are sidelined in the Majlis (parliament), both through the Guardians Council and through suspected political killings, which took place during the previous presidency of Rasanjani. Rafsanjani's not expected to show the same resistance to the Council's stranglehold as Khatami did when he set out in 1999. The way Khatami's enthusiastic spirit was crunched by the hardliners in the Council led to illusionist politics that were no more than a sham, some say. The Council's recent dealings with Mr Moin show that they have no plans to discontinue this style of governing. Whoever wins the elections is still likely to end up a puppet on a string, pulled by Khamenei and the other conservatives. The outcome of the elections is likely a win for Rafsanjani. Mr Moin's ratings haven't been overwhelming and he's not been able to shed the dull image attached to him, Mohammed Ghalibaf, the former police officer that's running on behalf of the conservatives, is likely to score little too. Other hardliners Ali Larijani, Mahmud Ahmadi Nejad and Mohsen Rezai. The only moderate aside from Rafsanjani and Moin is the former parliament speaker Mehdi Karoubi, who's not believed to be very popular despite his strong criticism of the Guardian Council for bein unfair to the politicians who have 'done nothing but honestly serve the country'. Whoever wins, Iran's new president is unlikely to have much influence over the country's main direction. Issues like the nuclear program and the economy are largely decided by the conservative establishment. American intelligence, self-professed wobbly, indicates that the supreme leader is the only person in the country that decides on the nuclear issue. Official US Iran data dates back to 2001, but it is being updated and a new report by the National Intelligence Council, a CIA branch, is expected this spring. The CIA director Porter J. Goss said in a speech recently however that the CIA takes the spokesman of Iran's Supreme Council for National Security very serious, who publicly announced that Iran would never scrap its nuclear program on many occasions. The CIA also believes that previous comments by Iranian officials, including Iran's Supreme Leader and the Foreign Minister, have indicated that Iran would not give up its ability to enrich uranium. "Certainly they can use it to produce fuel for power reactors. We are more concerned about the dual-use nature of the technology that could also be used to achieve a nuclear weapon", said Goss. The CIA chief also expressed concern over the so called controversial 'black box' invention that made news headlines a few months ago. Goss said that this indicates that Iran in parallel with its nuclear program, continues its pursuit of long-range ballistic missiles, such as an improved version of its 1,300 km range Shahab-3 MRBM, to add to the hundreds of short-range SCUD missiles it already has. Angelique van Engelen is a freelance writer based in Amsterdam. She runs http://www.contentClix.com and writes international news analysis, arts reviews, and New Economy articles.
MORE RESOURCES:
Your morning fashion and beauty report: Meghan McCain dishes on style ... - Los Angeles Times (blog)
Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Think You Dont Need A License for A Wireless Microphone? Think Again Believe it or not, every theatre, church, or Britney Spears wannabe using a wireless microphone is supposed to have a license for it. No, I'm not making this stuff up. French NON to Europe Might be Engrained in Their History Many of the problems that the members of the European Union are expressing with their constitution are in matter of fact problems with they perceive to be the 'one size fits all' idea of policies. The French are loudest in expressing their objections and looking at the history of the evolution of the nation state, perhaps they have a point. Emerging Markets, Property Law I read an interesting article in foreign Affairs magazine last year, and recently in the Economist also. The articles stated in some way that a country without a set of laws for property rights would mean slow-growth, lack of foreign investment and economic vitality would be scarce. Fuel Prices at the Pump: That is not the problem, Natural Gas Prices are high too The price at the gas pump is certainly on everyone's mind. We read about Airliner Bankruptcies too and their fuel costs. Bosnia - An Economy in Search of a State Bosnia-Herzegovina (heretofore "Bosnia") is an artificial polity with four, tangentially interacting, economies. Serbs, Croats and their nominal allies, the Bosniaks each maintain their own economy. George Bush--A New World Order When this president's father was in the Oval Office, he was fond of singing the praises of the "New World Order" that was to arrive. The phrase carried a lot of baggage, especially with conservatives who had long heard the term associated with a one-world government with little room for individual rights. Constitutional Amendment Needed on Sodomy Laws Many very nice and loving homosexual male couples want to get married. Sure they can have various personal vows and contractual relationships, share monies; even call themselves married; domestic partners or sole mates. The Morality of Child Labor From the comfort of their plush offices and five to six figure salaries, self-appointed NGO's often denounce child labor as their employees rush from one five star hotel to another, $3000 subnotebooks and PDA's in hand. The hairsplitting distinction made by the ILO between "child work" and "child labor" conveniently targets impoverished countries while letting its budget contributors - the developed ones - off-the-hook. History of the Media, Radio, and Television When were the forms of media created? When did advertising first show up? Who owns the media?Creation of the various forms of media*Newspapers & Magazines ~ 1880*Movies ~ 1910*Television ~ 1945*Cable Television ~ 1980's*Satellite Television, Internet, Digital Communication ~ End of the 20th centuryIn 1920, radio was first developed, primarily for use by the military, strictly for sendingHistory of the Media - Old Radios messages from one location to another. David Sternoff, the then-president of RCA, first had the idea to sell radio sets to consumers, or what were then called radio receivers. Snowbirds and American Migration and Mobile Populations We have seen an increase in Snowbirds from Northern States into Southern States. It is truly phenomenal the difference between now and a few years ago. The Options For Regime Change In Iran If recent speeches by US officials on Iran's plans to become a nuclear power can be seen as part of a build-up to a possible US-evoked regime change in Iran, the intelligence behind it is at once scant and abundant. Whatever the real official US policy toward Iran is aiming for exactly is hard to get clear, but it is noteworthy that off late, US officials have stepped up their campaign of Iran criticism. Why the United States just doesnt get the United Nations For years I have been amazed as I've listened to people here in the United States demonstrate their complete ignorance of the purpose and tremendous value of the United Nations, even to the point of our country not paying dues to the organization. Ambassador to the United Nations has often been viewed as a second-class or B-level diplomatic job and with the current Presidential perspective, the UN has become a troublesome entity and the appointment of an Ambassador a hassle. DC Lawyers; Have I Got a Case for You? This is no time for the Black community to sue the CSX Railroad which is a conglomeration of merged companies and the Southern Pacific Railroad Co, which did receive profits from the use for Black slave labor, but had nothing to do with CSX today which is a well diversified company in color of skin and forms of transportation. Stop hurting America with this kind of headline grabbing. Road Map Wont Work Cause PA Are Liars The US-backed Road Map peace plan had no real chance of success because Israel was the only signatory living up to its side of the agreement, former US House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich wrote recently."Diplomacy is important and has a vital role to play [in solving the Israeli-Arab conflict], but its function must be different than the Oslo process and the Road Map suggest," Gingrich argued in the summer edition of Middle East Quarterly. Another Round of EU-Iran Talks Starts April 10 - Will Iran Be Referred To The UN Security Council? Iran's objection to ratifying the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol of the IAEA is said to be the main obstacle to dispelling fears that it is not building a nuclear weapon. Iranian and EU officials meet April 10 to try to resolve a stalemate in their negotiations over this issue. Socialist Public Schools In America Many parents might think it a bit farfetched to compare our public schools to schools in socialist or communist countries. However, if we look closer, we will see striking similarities between the two systems. Are We Really Getting Along? When you look at the news, immigrants are dying trying to get to America. Some are in America legally and illegally. Electronic Commerce Taxaton: Emerging Legal Issues - Part II UNAUTHORIZED HACKINGThe term "computer hacking" traditionally describes the penetration into computer systems, which is not carried out with the aims of manipulation, sabotage or espionage, but for the pleasure of overcoming the technical security measures. In practice, this kind of offense can be frequently found. Franchising Democracy and Creating Cohesive World Government There are so many problems with our perceived perfect checks and balances system of our government, that one cannot use the exact United States version model of government to create a franchise agreement for future governments of the world. A standardized system of government in all countries of the World needs to exist if we are all to live peacefully on the planet, trade and respect each others cultural heritage and tolerate the many different renditions of World Religion. Without Trucks America Stops Do you ever wonder how everything gets to the super markets? It came by truck. Some items come from half way around the world.
|
| home | site map |
| © 2006 |
